Ciudadanos would now be Spain¡¯s most voted party, new survey shows

If general elections were held in Spain now, Ciudadanos would be the most-voted party, according to a new voter intention survey by pollster Metroscopia for EL PA?S.

Albert Rivera¡¯s party, which burst into the political scene during the economic crisis with a message of reform, would secure 27.1% of the vote, followed by the Popular Party (PP) with 23.2% and the Socialist Party (PSOE) with 21.6%. Podemos, the other protest party to emerge from the crisis, would come in fourth with 15.1% of support.

This break with decades of two-party politics opens up possibilities for different majorities

The Metroscopia survey reflects a collective state of mind at a given point in time. At this time, there is nothing to suggest that Spain is going to hold early elections, nor are voters feeling the tension that comes before such a ballot.

But it is significant that for the first time, Ciudadanos shows up very clearly at the top of voter intention.

A lot of that has to do with the party¡¯s resounding success at the Catalan elections of December 21, when its local candidate, In¨¦s Arrimadas, won the most votes and the most seats with a strongly pro-unity message (even if secessionist forces collectively secured enough seats for a parliamentary majority).

The survey shows that many citizens appreciated Ciudadanos¡¯ clear, uninhibited position in defense of Spain¡¯s constitutional framework and against secession. Asked which party has an adequate project for the future of Spain, 44% of respondents answered ¡°Ciudadanos.¡± The conservative PP trailed far behind at 20%.

This perception held true to varying degrees among supporters of other parties: among PP voters, 68% feel that Ciudadanos has a clear national project, compared with 58% who feel the same way about the PP itself. Among PSOE voters, 44% feel that Ciudadanos has a strong plan for the future of the country, compared with 43% who think the Socialists¡¯ project is better.

The voter intention survey shows that Ciudadanos would be the most voted party in a majority of cities and towns with a population of 2,000 and over. It would also secure the greatest support across age groups and economic brackets.

This break with decades of two-party politics, when the PP and PSOE took turns in government, opens up possibilities for different parliamentary majorities. One would be a center-right coalition of Ciudadanos and PP (50.3% of the vote), another a center-left alignment of Ciudadanos and PSOE (48.7%).

The data shows that Ciudadanos is taking votes away chiefly from the PP (23%) but also from the PSOE (13%) and Podemos (5%). Voter loyalty is very high at 81%: most of the people who voted for them in 2016 would do so again now.

Albert Rivera also tops the approval ratings, followed by Pedro S¨¢nchez of the PSOE, Mariano Rajoy of the PP and Pablo Iglesias of Podemos.

English version by Susana Urra.