Fear of fresh election could produce last-minute governing deal in Spain

In Spain, the pressure to reach a governing deal ahead of a crucial parliamentary vote on Thursday has reached a new high after acting Prime Minister Pedro S¨¢nchez failed to secure enough support to be confirmed as government leader.

Socialist sources said that a repeat election would not necessarily favor them

The growing risk of a repeat election in the fall makes it more likely that the Socialist Party (PSOE) and the anti-austerity Unidas Podemos will finally strike a governing deal ahead of Thursday afternoon.

At a Tuesday vote that followed a tense two-day debate in Congress, S¨¢nchez received 124 affirmative votes: 123 from his own lawmakers and one from the single representative for a small party from the northern region of Cantabria.

This is far short of the 176 he required for an absolute majority. S¨¢nchez has a second chance on Thursday, when he will only need a simple majority of more yes than no votes. But even this is not a foregone conclusion. If he fails again, there will be a two-month period to find a new candidate, after which Spain will be facing a fresh general election, the fourth in under four years.

S¨¢nchez has been in talks for weeks with Pablo Iglesias, the leader of Unidas Podemos, in a bid to reach a leftist governing deal. But negotiations have stalled and on Tuesday Podemos abstained ¨C a sign that there might still be hope for an 11th-hour agreement before the second round of voting.

In the meantime, other regional parties that could hold the key to S¨¢nchez¡¯s success on Thursday, such as the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV), Valencia¡¯s Comprom¨ªs and the Catalan Republican Left (ERC), are also pressuring for a deal to prevent a new election.

Renewed talks

A few hours after the Tuesday vote, acting deputy PM Carmen Calvo phoned Podemos to take up the talks again. Pablo Echenique, a senior Podemos official, said that his party is awaiting the Socialists¡¯ proposals. A meeting is expected for Wednesday.

Podemos leaders have been conveying the message that they are open to last-minute deals, as long as the PSOE offers them something more than ¡°decorative¡± positions in the future government. After S¨¢nchez cited Iglesias¡¯ wish to be part of the Cabinet as the main stumbling block to an agreement, the Podemos leader this past weekend agreed to step aside.

So far, S¨¢nchez seems unwilling to offer Podemos much more than he has already

Podemos seems to believe that the PSOE wants a repeat election on November 10, although sources at La Moncloa, the seat of government, have denied this categorically. Socialist sources said that a repeat election would not necessarily favor them, as left-wing voters might stay home in large numbers. Spain has had four elections this year already: general, local, regional and European, and an exhausted electorate might be reluctant to go to the polls a fifth time.

So far, S¨¢nchez seems unwilling to offer Podemos much more than he has already, which is a few newly created ministerial positions (with very little executive power, says Podemos) and a spot for a deputy PM who would oversee social affairs. On Tuesday, the Socialist leader said in Congress that the choice for the anti-austerity party is either that, ¡°or voting the same way as the far right.¡±

Some people who are familiar with S¨¢nchez¡¯s personality believe he is acting this way to get more negotiating leverage. Others feel that he simply distrusts Iglesias and that he really is contemplating a fresh election.

English version by Susana Urra.