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Promedio de encuestas EL PA?S

En esta p¨¢gina recopilamos todas las encuestas de las elecciones generales que se van publicando. Tambi¨¦n calculamos un promedio de todos esos sondeos para tener la mejor estimaci¨®n y capturar las tendencias. El promedio se actualiza con cada nueva encuesta. 22 de ABRIL 2019

Cada punto es la estimaci¨®n de voto de una encuesta y las l¨ªneas son el promedio. Por colores PP, PSOE, Ciudadanos, Unidas Podemos (Comprom¨ªs y En Marea) y Vox.

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Datos de las encuestas

La tabla ofrece el detalle de todas las encuestas en nuestro promedio. Son datos de la estimaci¨®n de voto para cada partido, en porcentaje sobre el total de votos v¨¢lidos. Puedes filtrar los sondeos de cada empresa.

Encuestadora Fecha PSOE Partido Popular Ciudadanos Unidas Podemos VOX ERC EAJ PNV PDeCAT EH Bildu Comprom¨ªs Coalici¨®n Canaria PACMA En Marea
sociom¨¦trica18 ABR 201929,518,215,113,612,63,31,11,30,91,10,20,90,2
metroscopia18 ABR 201929,119,614,214,311,13,51,41,40,71,10,3--
nc report18 ABR 201928,123,814,91392,91,31,40,81,50,3--
celeste-tel18 ABR 201928,923,515,113,57,92,91,21,50,81,30,31,30,3
gad318 ABR 201931,520,113,912,111,43,31,21,20,90,40,31,9-
imop18 ABR 201929,819,815,114,11031,21,20,80,80,31,8-
40dB18 ABR 201928,817,814,113,212,53,311,910,90,42,80,3
sigma dos18 ABR 201930,320,11513,210,23,81,31,3-----
dym16 ABR 20192920,415,513,710,4--------
sondaxe16 ABR 201930,918,313,813,610,52,82,11,50,8-0,4--
celeste-tel14 ABR 201928,123,815,812,97,72,91,21,40,81,40,31,40,4
top position14 ABR 201927,822,313,112,214,23,21,21,6-----
gad314 ABR 201931,320,913,212,311,83,61,21,20,70,50,31,4-
sociom¨¦trica11 ABR 201930,518,81612,710,93,31,11,310,80,210,3
imop11 ABR 20193118,615,813,49,53,31,21,30,80,90,32-
gad310 ABR 201931,12114,411,411,23,61,21,20,70,50,31,4-
invymark09 ABR 201927,120,816,413,212,7--------
nc report08 ABR 201927,524,115,812,19,12,91,31,30,81,80,3-0,4
gad308 ABR 201930,921,313,51211,22,91,31,30,70,30,31,40,1
celeste-tel07 ABR 201927,323,915,913,17,82,81,21,60,81,50,31,50,5
imop06 ABR 20193119,41613,29,83,11,31,30,80,8-1,5-
nc report05 ABR 201926,92416,112,39,42,81,31,30,81,70,30,80,7
imop05 ABR 201931,52015,512,99,33,21,31,20,90,6-0,9-
simple l¨®gica04 ABR 201930,516,715,514,49,8--------
gesop03 ABR 201929,82114,51210,6--------
gad303 ABR 201931,120,914,911,59,82,91,31,30,70,30,31,40,1
celeste-tel29 MAR 201927,223,615,712,28,72,81,21,60,71,60,31,50,7
nc report29 MAR 201926,723,116,511,910,331,31,30,71,6--0,6
sociom¨¦trica27 MAR 20192918,816,112,611,931,21,30,90,50,31,20,4
imop27 MAR 20193021,61413,79,53,51,11,110,5-1,8-
demoscopia servicios25 MAR 201927,72116,913,411,22,11,51,4-1,4---
celeste-tel24 MAR 20192722,916,712,19,12,81,21,70,71,60,3-0,7
imop23 MAR 2019312014,911,910,13,31,2-1,10,7-2-
metroscopia22 MAR 201928,71916,31411,7--------
imop20 MAR 201930,519,514,412,4113,51,31,31--2,1-
nc report20 MAR 201926,922,417,11210,72,91,31,20,71,5--0,5
sondaxe18 MAR 201926,918,913,813,413,93,911,70,8-0,5--
40dB18 MAR 201927,119,317,713,810,2--------
nc report13 MAR 20192623,217,814,810,32,81,11,20,6----
gad312 MAR 201930,921,913,111,211,52,91,21,50,7-0,3--
cis10 MAR 201930,217,213,612,911,94,51,31,21,10,90,41,40,1
simple l¨®gica09 MAR 201931,217,116,712,48,6--------
celeste-tel08 MAR 201925,422,818,114,39,62,71,21,70,7-0,31,2-
sociom¨¦trica06 MAR 201927,617,517,814,112,13,111,50,9-0,22-
gad306 MAR 201930,622,113,211,812,12,81,21,50,6-0,2--
invymark06 MAR 201925,220,420,313,211,5--------
sigma dos21 FEB 201927,319,11614,413,33,21,21,1-----
gad321 FEB 201928,923,215,711,510,831,31,5--0,2--
invymark19 FEB 201924,32120,213,911,3--------
sondaxe18 FEB 201928,219,313,514,214,23,81,41,7-----
sociom¨¦trica14 FEB 201924,318,618,715,211,83,31,11,30,8-0,31,9-
gesop14 FEB 201927,419,914,513,613--------
gad314 FEB 201928,223,617,112,48,82,81,21,60,6-0,3--
nc report13 FEB 201924,123,618,916102,81,11,30,6----
metroscopia12 FEB 201927,620,515,413,812,7--------
celeste-tel06 FEB 201923,723,119,215,88,92,81,21,70,8-0,31,1-
simple l¨®gica06 FEB 201925,417,91713,911,7--------
invymark01 FEB 201923,921,320,913,511,2--------
nc report23 ENE 201924,22418,716,69,42,80,91,20,7----
gad320 ENE 201926,52317,111,69,82,81,21,60,6-0,2--
invymark16 ENE 201923,221,52314,48,9--------
metroscopia13 ENE 201923,719,117,817,112--------
cis propia06 ENE 201923,821,218,618,67,5--------
simple l¨®gica06 ENE 201925,118,217,91411--------
celeste-tel06 ENE 201924,123,819,616,18,12,811,50,7-0,30,8-
hamalgama01 ENE 201921,222,518,219,38,72,521,80,6-0,2--
sociom¨¦trica01 ENE 201922,418,318,517,1123,21,21,40,9-0,3--
sigma dos24 DIC 201822,619,218,815,812,93,61,21-----
invymark19 DIC 201823,521,822,715,27,8--------
sigma dos16 DIC 201824,121,218,416,79,2--------
sociom¨¦trica12 DIC 201822,521,61917,88,53,11,21,50,7-0,4--
gad312 DIC 201824,220,520,714,28,72,81,21,80,7-0,2--
imop12 DIC 201825,819,620,615,5831,21,60,9--1,6-
metroscopia11 DIC 201822,21820,517,911--------
nc report10 DIC 201824,824,41817,28,72,80,91,20,6----
celeste-tel07 DIC 201825,224,719,416,26,82,911,50,6-0,30,8-
target point07 DIC 201824,922,820,617,25,9--------
invymark05 DIC 201823,222,922,914,87,3--------
sociom¨¦trica05 DIC 20182520,318,816113,11,11,50,7-0,3--
simple l¨®gica08 NOV 201824,119,622,418,1---------
celeste-tel07 NOV 201826,925,820,417,31,52,811,60,7-0,30,9-
nc report07 NOV 201826,526,319,9172,12,90,91,40,7-0,3--
invymark07 NOV 201825,424,222,717---------
gad306 NOV 201826,622,321,916,63,42,91,31,40,6-0,1--
gesop27 OCT 201825,321,321,816,14,33,3-1,5-----
invymark25 OCT 201825,724,22217,3---------
metroscopia17 OCT 201825,222,619,217,75,1--------
metroscopia16 OCT 201825,222,619,217,75,1--------
dialoga consultores15 OCT 201826,623,42017,91,13,31,11,60,9-0,20,9-
nc report07 OCT 201826,826,719,516,81,931,11,40,7-0,3--
simple l¨®gica04 OCT 201825,223,821,617,3---------
celeste-tel04 OCT 201827,726,319,317,4131,11,70,8-0,30,8-
simple l¨®gica02 OCT 201825,321,223,115,92------2,2-
invymark26 SEP 201824,624,622,317,8---------
dym18 SEP 201826,523,422,716,2---------
metroscopia18 SEP 201827,722,820,815,1---------
invymark12 SEP 20182524,122,118,6---------
imop09 SEP 201826,520,323,915,432,81,21,50,7--2,1-
simple l¨®gica05 SEP 201824,821,123,216,6---------
celeste-tel05 SEP 201828,226,418,717,1-31,11,70,8-0,30,8-
gad305 SEP 20182725,920,615,91,52,81,11,90,7----
nc report29 AGO 201827,827,518,816-31,11,50,8-0,3--
sociom¨¦trica27 AGO 201825,822,623,116,51,831,31,50,7-0,51,5-
celeste-tel05 AGO 20182825,519,417,3-31,11,60,9-0,31-
simple l¨®gica02 AGO 201825,524,423,415,3---------
nc report25 JUL 201827,426,719,215,8-3,11,21,50,8-0,3--
invymark25 JUL 20182624,421,118,3---------
gad325 JUL 201827,926,219,615,1-31,11,90,8-0,3--
demoscopia servicios23 JUL 201825,327,120,816,8-2,51,31,80,7-0,6--
metroscopia20 JUL 201826,624,420,116,1---------
invymark11 JUL 201826,523,421,918,1---------
sigma dos11 JUL 201826,322,324,216,1-3,21,11,2-----
cis05 JUL 201829,920,420,415,6-3,91,21,30,6-0,1--
simple l¨®gica05 JUL 201827,218,72617,3---------
celeste-tel05 JUL 201827,124,220,617,7-3,11,11,60,9-0,31,1-
nc report28 JUN 201826,325,220,616,2-3,11,21,40,8-0,3--
sociom¨¦trica20 JUN 201823,919,525,316,92,12,91,31,30,8-0,51,6-
invymark20 JUN 201826,722,922,117,9---------
gesop12 JUN 201828,62122,816,6-2,6-1,6-----
dym12 JUN 201827,124,920,614,6---------
nc report07 JUN 201824,925,52116,7-3,11,21,50,8-0,3--
gad307 JUN 201828,825,621,113,11,13,211,60,8-0,31,4-
simple l¨®gica06 JUN 201826,720,625,716,5---------
celeste-tel06 JUN 201825,824,321,117,4-31,21,50,9-0,31,3-
invymark06 JUN 201825,123,722,217,3---------
invymark29 MAY 201822,623,526,417,3---------
imop26 MAY 201820,619,628,619,7-2,41,21,80,7--2-
sociom¨¦trica21 MAY 201820,316,828,519,31,93,31,41,51-0,41,5-
nc report21 MAY 201823,625,624,415,8-2,91,11,40,8-0,3--
simple l¨®gica08 MAY 201820,120,929,617,2---------
metroscopia08 MAY 20181919,529,119,8---------
celeste-tel06 MAY 201824,224,723,516,9---------
gesop15 ABR 201820,52128,518,1-3-2-----
invymark10 ABR 201822,324,825,217,1---------
nc report10 ABR 201823,526,324,316,2-2,91,11,40,8-0,3--
cis06 ABR 2018222422,419,6-31,31,70,6-0,3--
simple l¨®gica06 ABR 201820,21929,917,6---------
metroscopia05 ABR 201819,120,428,718,3---------
celeste-tel04 ABR 201824,124,92416,6-2,91,21,50,9-0,31,3-
sociom¨¦trica25 MAR 201819,421,927,416,21,541,11,50,9-0,5--
sigma dos25 MAR 201819,723,326,718,4-3,31,21,3-----
myword15 MAR 201820,424,723,816---------
invymark15 MAR 201822,625,12516,8-2,41,22,4-----
gad313 MAR 201822,123,827,316,7-2,91,41,60,6-0,3--
simple l¨®gica05 MAR 2018212029,617,3---------
celeste-tel05 MAR 201824,326,623,516,2-2,61,31,60,9-0,31,2-
metroscopia04 MAR 201819,421,528,917---------
invymark01 MAR 201823,1262416,5---------
nc report01 MAR 20182427,922,115,8-2,81,21,50,8-0,3--
imop25 FEB 201821,521,428,517-31,11,70,8--2-
invymark14 FEB 201822,825,923,816,5---------
myword12 FEB 201821,324,522,116,6---------
celeste-tel08 FEB 201825,528,919,316,5-2,71,31,60,9-0,31,2-
metroscopia06 FEB 201820,121,928,316,8---------
simple l¨®gica04 FEB 201821,422,228,717---------
gad304 FEB 201823,725,825,614,8-2,91,21,80,8-0,3--
invymark24 ENE 20182326,123,416,2---------
cis10 ENE 201823,126,320,819-3,41,220,8-0,3--
metroscopia10 ENE 201821,623,227,115,1---------
gad310 ENE 201824,224,726,214,7-2,91,31,90,7-0,3--
simple l¨®gica06 ENE 201823,421,824,117,8---------
celeste-tel04 ENE 201825,129,818,616,9-2,51,21,70,9-0,31,2-
nc report28 DIC 201723,83018,816,1-31,11,30,8-0,3--
invymark28 DIC 201723,327,622,415,7-2,3-2,3-----
sociom¨¦trica25 DIC 201722,524,123,916,21,73,51,11,90,7-0,5--
simple l¨®gica09 DIC 201723,824,822,816,3---------
invymark15 NOV 201725,330,116,417-2,8-1,6-----
celeste-tel08 NOV 201724,230,317,517,7-2,71,21,30,9-0,31,3-
metroscopia08 NOV 201722,726,122,714,7---------
simple l¨®gica06 NOV 201724,827,121,615,1---------
sociom¨¦trica01 NOV 201724,827,520,615,722,111,70,6-0,3--
invymark01 NOV 201725,130,315,817,5---------
sigma dos25 OCT 20172631,416,715,3-31,41,4-----
invymark18 OCT 201724,93014,619,5---------
nc report14 OCT 20172231,417,817,5-31,11,30,8-0,3--
cis07 OCT 201724,22817,518,5-2,71,31,60,7-0,3--
dym04 OCT 20172429,917,516,9---------
celeste-tel04 OCT 201723,630,617,218,1-2,81,21,30,9-0,31,4-
simple l¨®gica04 OCT 201724,227,720,716,6---------
gad304 OCT 201721,829,819,517,9-3,11,21,81-0,3--
invymark13 SEP 201724,530,214,120---------
simple l¨®gica11 SEP 20172530,115,818,8---------
sigma dos07 SEP 201726,430,812,719,5-2,31,21,3-----
gad306 SEP 201723,931,915,818,3-3,51,41,30,7-0,3--
celeste-tel04 SEP 201725,430,914,918,7-2,91,21,30,9-0,31,3-
myword04 SEP 201726,130,914,117,5---------
simple l¨®gica05 AGO 20172530,813,718,8---------
celeste-tel05 AGO 20172531,114,918,9-2,91,21,40,9-0,31,3-
redondo31 JUL 201723,828,714,319,6---------
metroscopia16 JUL 20172226,918,519,7---------
invymark12 JUL 201723,430,713,621,3---------
myword10 JUL 201723,629,214,519---------
nc report09 JUL 201722,334,213,919,1-2,911,20,9-0,3--
simple l¨®gica07 JUL 201724,127,217,220,4---------
cis06 JUL 201724,928,814,520,3-2,911,70,8-0,4--
celeste-tel06 JUL 201724,431,615,118,8-2,91,11,30,8-0,31,4-
invymark28 JUN 201724,23013,821,1---------
metroscopia28 JUN 201721,625,518,820,6---------
dym26 JUN 20172530,915,817,5---------
invymark14 JUN 201723,630,414,221---------
sociom¨¦trica12 JUN 201724,226,718,119,1-3,31,220,9-0,5--
simple l¨®gica08 JUN 201725,329,916,818,6---------
invymark08 JUN 20172330,914,320,9---------
celeste-tel06 JUN 201723,531,914,519-2,81,21,41-0,31,6-
myword01 JUN 201724,828,615,718,9---------
gad301 JUN 201725,930,715,417,8-2,91,41,5-----
metroscopia31 MAY 201722,825,918,719,2---------
nc report28 MAY 201720,53612,620,2-2,81,11,50,9-0,3--
invymark25 MAY 201722,831,214,120,8---------
redondo22 MAY 201723291622---------
invymark18 MAY 20172231,714,221,2---------
simple l¨®gica11 MAY 201722,330,914,819,8---------
sigma dos09 MAY 201723,531,114,321,6-2,61,21-----
celeste-tel04 MAY 201722,534,812,719,3-2,81,21,50,9-0,31,2-
invymark04 MAY 201721,73213,821,6---------
sociom¨¦trica10 ABR 201721,231,616,719,4-2,81,31,90,8-0,4--
nc report10 ABR 20172136,811,820,2-2,711,50,9-0,3--
simple l¨®gica08 ABR 201723,830,813,919,3---------
cis06 ABR 201719,931,514,919,7-2,91,121,1-0,3--
celeste-tel05 ABR 201722,335,112,919,2-2,81,11,50,9-0,31,3-
metroscopia04 ABR 201720,230,217,420,7---------
invymark30 MAR 201721,433,212,921,4---------
myword24 MAR 201722,630,71420,3---------
invymark16 MAR 20172132,613,421,9---------
nc report15 MAR 201720,83711,320,2-2,71,11,61-0,3--
dym12 MAR 2017203116,219,9---------
metroscopia09 MAR 20171931,216,521,5---------
simple l¨®gica07 MAR 201720,929,915,720---------
celeste-tel05 MAR 201722,135,612,119,3-2,81,21,60,9-0,31,4-
invymark01 MAR 201721,333,212,821,5---------
sigma dos01 MAR 201720,234,312,621,7-2,61,31,6-----
gesop21 FEB 201721,132,21421,7-2,8-1,4-----
sociom¨¦trica15 FEB 201718,632,515,420,2-31,41,50,9-0,3--
invymark13 FEB 201721,133,312,522---------
simple l¨®gica09 FEB 201721,43113,722,6---------
celeste-tel04 FEB 201721,335,712,119,7-2,81,21,80,9-0,31,4-
myword04 FEB 201721,832,712,620,5---------
nc report01 FEB 201719,936,811,520,8-2,71,11,81-0,3--
gad330 ENE 201720,434,213,820,8-2,81,21,6-----
invymark25 ENE 201720,634,111,722,6---------
simple l¨®gica13 ENE 201718,233,414,722,6---------
invymark12 ENE 201720,234,311,322,9-2,61,21,6-----
metroscopia11 ENE 201719,133,215,521,7---------
cis08 ENE 201718,63312,421,7-31,81,70,9-0,2--
celeste-tel07 ENE 201720,735,912,420,3-2,81,21,90,9-0,31,4-
sociom¨¦trica27 DIC 201619,434,812,622,5-2,71,21,7-----
sociom¨¦trica27 DIC 201618,83315,521,1-2,71,51,20,8-0,3--
gipeyop25 DIC 201619,934,913,320,6-2,91,31,81-0,3--
invymark21 DIC 201620,434,511,822,4---------
nc report15 DIC 201619,336,911,621,2-2,71,11,81-0,3--
gad315 DIC 201619,234,114,221,6-2,81,22,10,9-0,3--
invymark15 DIC 201619,934,712,122,6---------
simple l¨®gica05 DIC 201619,933,914,521---------
celeste-tel05 DIC 201620,235,912,720,7-2,81,21,90,9-0,31,4-
sociom¨¦trica01 DIC 201619,632,415,422,4-2,81,31,30,7-0,3--
invymark01 DIC 20162034,312,422,9---------
metroscopia27 NOV 201617,934,214,522,9---------
myword20 NOV 201618,633,812,422,5---------
nc report18 NOV 201619,536,911,420,6-2,81,11,60,9-0,3--
invymark16 NOV 201619,534,812,122,7-2,51,21,8-----
sociologia consultores11 NOV 201618,136,81418,2---------
metroscopia11 NOV 201617,935,71323,1---------
simple l¨®gica06 NOV 201617,634,114,522,9---------
celeste-tel06 NOV 201620,436,212,820,2-2,81,220,9-0,31,3-
invymark02 NOV 201619,13512,422,6-2,61,21,8-----
invymark27 OCT 201618,535,31223,2-2,71,21,9-----
metroscopia13 OCT 20161837,811,622,1---------
simple l¨®gica08 OCT 201615,936,813,923,5---------
cis08 OCT 20161734,512,821,8-31,31,70,8-0,5--
nc report06 OCT 201619,936,711,920,6---------
sociologia consultores06 OCT 201619,436,512,518,6---------
invymark06 OCT 20162034,113,421,8-2,61,21,9-----
celeste-tel04 OCT 201620,936,112,520,5-2,81,220,8-0,31,3-
dym02 OCT 201619,636,211,821,7---------
sociom¨¦trica28 SEP 201619,933,814,621,4-2,81,41,90,9-0,3--
gad320 SEP 201618,636,411,920,8-2,81,42,11-0,4--
20 SEP 201619,835,411,520,9-2,71,42,11-0,4--
myword12 SEP 20162233,412,920,6---------
simple l¨®gica10 SEP 201623,733,612,820---------
gad305 SEP 201621,133,912,920,5-2,71,22,10,8-0,3--
invymark05 SEP 201621,833,71420,1---------
metroscopia05 SEP 201621,334,81221,1---------
sociologia consultores05 SEP 201622,534,711,519,5---------
nc report01 SEP 201622,434,812,120,7-2,81,21,90,8-0,3--
celeste-tel26 AGO 201622,33412,720,9-2,51,320,8-0,31,3-
simple l¨®gica05 AGO 201622,835,412,321,3---------
nc report22 JUL 201622,234,112,321-2,91,220,7-0,3--
simple l¨®gica10 JUL 201622,333,514,121,6---------
cis05 JUL 201623,132,51219,6-2,91,21,70,9-0,1--
invymark01 JUL 201622,533,611,721,2---------
gesop19 JUN 201621,928,314,924---------
gad319 JUN 201621,230,714,124,9---------
invymark18 JUN 201619,930,113,826,1---------
gesop18 JUN 201621,628,815,423,7---------
gesop17 JUN 201621,228,315,624,2---------
celeste-tel16 JUN 20162130,213,125---------
sigma dos15 JUN 20162030,514,124,8---------
myword15 JUN 201620,428,914,424,8---------
metroscopia15 JUN 201620,52914,526---------
invymark15 JUN 201620,429,814,125,3---------
hamalgama15 JUN 201621,728,816,224,3---------
gesop15 JUN 201621281524,55---------
gad315 JUN 201621,430,314,424,6---------
kiko llaneras15 JUN 201620,430,415,224---------
dym15 JUN 2016212915,224,9---------
celeste-tel15 JUN 201621,53013,224,8---------
tns12 JUN 20162129,614,824,7---------
redondo12 JUN 201621,129,215,324,6---------
nc report12 JUN 201621,231,113,225,4---------
hamalgama12 JUN 20162130,412,526,2---------
gipeyop12 JUN 20162229,514,524,5---------
celeste-tel12 JUN 20162229,813,824,9---------
tns09 JUN 201621,32915,624,5---------
simple l¨®gica08 JUN 201622,529,215,423,5---------
gad308 JUN 201621,429,814,924,3---------
metroscopia07 JUN 201620,828,915,925,4---------
kiko llaneras07 JUN 20162128,815,824,7---------
invymark06 JUN 20162030,114,424,8---------
gesop06 JUN 201621,227,915,524,5---------
sondaxe05 JUN 201621,429,212,926,1---------
celeste-tel04 JUN 201622,129,714,324,4---------
kiko llaneras02 JUN 201621,627,715,424,3---------
sigma dos01 JUN 201620,3311423,7---------
nc report01 JUN 201621,430,513,924,5---------
metroscopia01 JUN 201620,228,516,625,6---------
nc report23 MAY 201621,330,514,224,7---------
myword22 MAY 201620,729,214,224,8---------
celeste-tel18 MAY 20162229,514,924,2---------
metroscopia17 MAY 201620,229,915,523,2---------
redondo15 MAY 201621,229,415,124,3---------
nc report15 MAY 201621,130,414,524,9---------
gipeyop15 MAY 201621,929,313,324,3---------
gad315 MAY 201621,629,614,822,5---------
kiko llaneras12 MAY 201619,730,814,723,7---------
cis12 MAY 201621,229,214,625,6---------
nc report11 MAY 20162130,214,724,9---------
invymark07 MAY 201620,129,615,124,2---------
simple l¨®gica05 MAY 201621,529,917,722,1---------
celeste-tel03 MAY 201622,429,215,524,2---------
nc report01 MAY 201620,830,21524,7---------
gad328 ABR 201622,629,313,922,3---------
metroscopia27 ABR 201620,32916,924,7---------
invymark27 ABR 201619,428,715,425,5---------
nc report24 ABR 201620,429,91525,9---------
kiko llaneras21 ABR 201620,227,31724,5---------
sigma dos20 ABR 201622,229,514,723,1---------
nc report14 ABR 201620,729,815,425,4---------
tns12 ABR 201622,329,415,823,5---------
simple l¨®gica08 ABR 201620,628,317,723,8---------
nc report07 ABR 20162129,615,524,8---------
gad306 ABR 201623,329,214,422,2---------
cis06 ABR 201621,627,417,721---------
metroscopia05 ABR 201620,12917,723,7---------
dym04 ABR 201620,729,215,225,5---------
celeste-tel03 ABR 201622,229,115,923,9---------
sigma dos30 MAR 20162230,216,221,2---------
invymark30 MAR 201621,628,615,224---------
metroscopia29 MAR 20162127,718,822,8---------
kiko llaneras28 MAR 201619,327,516,924,6---------
nc report27 MAR 201621,829,415,523,8---------
myword13 MAR 201620,9271823---------
metroscopia09 MAR 201623,12619,522,2---------
gad309 MAR 201624,228,214,121,9---------
sondaxe08 MAR 20162228,615,623,3---------
invymark08 MAR 201620,828,514,325,8---------
gesop07 MAR 201621,926,417,824---------
simple l¨®gica05 MAR 201621,626,217,126,2---------
celeste-tel04 MAR 201622,428,315,624---------
nc report01 MAR 201621,829,214,924,4---------
invymark24 FEB 201620,326,815,826,6---------
dym21 FEB 201622,125,617,625,2---------
sigma dos17 FEB 201623,127,815,322,8---------
invymark17 FEB 201621,826,416,224,9---------
nc report15 FEB 201621,428,914,224,5---------
invymark15 FEB 201621,826,416,224,9---------
gad310 FEB 201620,827,914,924,7---------
simple l¨®gica03 FEB 201621,726,918,925,4---------
metroscopia03 FEB 201623,32418,524,2---------
celeste-tel03 FEB 201622,228,31523,8---------
invymark01 FEB 201621,127,815,125,4---------
myword18 ENE 201621,32814,425---------
gad318 ENE 201621,330,113,422,9---------
metroscopia13 ENE 201621,12916,625,7---------
nc report12 ENE 201621,130,71225,3---------
invymark11 ENE 201620,830,812,625,1---------
celeste-tel10 ENE 201621,930,212,625,5---------
simple l¨®gica08 ENE 201620,43014,726,1---------
cis07 ENE 201620,528,813,325,6---------

?Qui¨¦n va a ganar las elecciones?

Consulta el resto de predicciones de nuestro modelo estad¨ªstico. Con datos de esca?os para cada partido, posiciones y posibles mayor¨ªas.

Metodolog¨ªa de nuestro modelo

Nuestro promedio tienen en cuenta decenas de sondeos para mejorar su precisi¨®n. Los datos son recopilados en su mayor¨ªa de Wikipedia. Se trata de un promedio ponderado que da distinto peso a cada encuesta seg¨²n tres factores: el tama?o de la muestra, la casa encuestadora y la fecha.

Ver metodolog¨ªa completa

Peso por muestra. Las encuestas con m¨¢s entrevistas reciben m¨¢s peso, pero siguiendo una ley decreciente: pasado cierto umbral, hacer m¨¢s entrevistas aporta poco.

Encuestas repetidas. Ponderamos a la baja las encuestas repetidas de un mismo encuestador. La idea es sencilla: no queremos que una empresa que haga muchas encuestas domine el promedio. Al calcular el promedio en una fecha, la encuesta m¨¢s cercana de cada encuestador tiene peso m¨¢ximo; el resto tienen peso reducido.

Peso por fecha. El tercer factor es el m¨¢s importante: queremos dar m¨¢s peso a las encuestas recientes al calcular el promedio. Para conseguirlo asignamos pesos a los sondeos seg¨²n una ley decreciente exponencial. Tambi¨¦n definimos una franja de inclusi¨®n que elimina completamente las encuestas con cierta antig¨¹edad. En el gr¨¢fico se puede elegir entre tres promedios: uno cauto, uno medio y otro agresivo. El cauto da m¨¢s peso a encuestas antiguas y usa una franja de inclusi¨®n m¨¢s amplia. El promedio agresivo hace lo contrario: da mucho peso a las encuestas recientes.

Los promedios como el nuestro pueden verse como una estimaci¨®n de consenso. En lugar de confiar en un ¨²nico encuestador, agregan el criterio y las hip¨®tesis de todos. Los promedios reducen el ruido de los sondeos, evitando que salten arriba y abajo por azar. Su principal ventaja es sencilla: se ha demostrado que los promedios mejoran la precisi¨®n de las encuestas individuales.

Cr¨¦ditos

Coordinaci¨®n y modelo estad¨ªstico: Kiko Llaneras, Daniele Grasso y Borja Andrino

Dise?o y maquetaci¨®n: Ignacio Povedano y Fernando Hern¨¢ndez

Desarrollo: Carola Heredia Ortiz

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